Exposure Management Working Group (EMWG)
The main role of the EMWG is to take the lead on behalf of catastrophe (cat) modellers working in the Lloyd’s market in identifying and considering key issues and requirements which may affect LMA members. The EMWG is co-chaired by Sian Fleming (Talbot) and David Singh (MS Amlin). The secretary to EMWG is Gary Budinger (LMA). View the Committee Terms of Reference.
The activities of the EMWG include:
- organising forum events for cat modellers and exposure management staff working in the market
- liaising with Lloyd’s representatives on any proposals or suggested changes which may impact on managing agents
- evolving the role cat models have in pricing and portfolio management including scenario analysis, exposure analytics and probabilistic dynamics
- coordinating approaches on data quality and enhancement to provide consistency and benchmarking throughout the market, and represent a market voice around standards adoption
- acting as the main body to liaise with vendors, and assist market in clarifying model terminology used by vendors and practitioners to help avoid confusion
- sharing experiences of model issues, including; hardware implications, uncertainty of parameters, clarification of vendor messages, and definition of model change.
In 2012, a sub-group of EMWG was formed to work with Lloyd’s on providing clarification and guidance to the wider market on what a validation policy should include with regards to meeting the requirements on the external cat modelling data supplied via vendors. The guidance issued on 10 July 2012 includes a suggested format and an example of a particular peril and how the validation for this could be approached.
In June 2013, the EMWG published a guide for non cat modellers which aims to provide some background information as to what a cat model is, explain the terminology frequently used by modellers, and answer many frequently asked questions on cat models. This is not intended to be a comprehensive guide to cat modelling or to answer all questions on this subject, but it does provide a quick reference document for those not involved directly in cat modelling.
In December 2016, a short “guidance” document was prepared by a sub-group of the EMWG which was led by Alan Godfrey (Asta) on the topic of Uncertainty in Catastrophe Modelling. EMWG felt that given the increasing use of cat models in the market in recent years and their perceived complexity and sophistication, this would be useful for non cat modellers in particular.